“The Fall from Grace” — Why some teams find it hard to remain in the Premier League.
Episode One: The Overview
The Premier League (PL) is historically one of the most exciting annual sporting competitions. Since it’s inception a little over 30 years ago, it has continued to grow in its capacity to command both domestic and global attention allowing the organisation to rake in billions of euros per season (according to Statista research [1] ), which, along with its elevated status of being England’s most competitive footballing competition, offer a great deal of status and financial benefits to those who can retain a place in the league year after year.
In the financial report for newly promoted Brentford FC, Cliff Crown (the chair of the club) spoke candidly about how much of their financial success came down to this:
“The impact created by the promotion to the Premier League has been game changing…As you will read, our financial results, fuelled by central broadcasting distributions and increased commercial revenues, are positive. It is not uncommon for newly promoted clubs to make a healthy profit in their first season in the Premier League, which we managed to do.”
Over the years certain teams have found their stride and have built up the expectation that their names will be once again found in the ranks of the Premier League table in the following season. Allowing them to attract progressively higher-class players and coaching staff, a wider fan-base, and more lucrative sponsorship deals, further solidifying their already firm grip on a position in the Premier League.
For others, however, this seems more like a pipe dream. The survivability rate for newly promoted teams isn’t encouraging, as upon promotion they immediately face a 43% probability of being relegated at the end of the season. In other words the chances of them remaining in the league is almost a flip of a coin, and “only 28% of teams that are promoted via the playoffs stay up.” (Skylab [2]) All in all this struggle at the bottom only serves to further solidify the teams at the top.
But…there’s hope.
However, a number of teams seem to have found a loophole. A way to bite back at the powers that be at the top of the league, not only in England, but also in the other seriously competitive leagues around Europe. A way in which to bypass the statistics and become real contenders in arguably the most prestigious sporting competitions across the continent.
La Liga’s Girona, for example, held the Spanish Giants, Real Madrid, to a 48-point stalemate at the top of the table at one point in the 2023/24 season under their coach, Michel. 23 games into the season, the side are still firmly positioned at the top of the table, just 2 points behind the league-leaders, Los Blancos, and a staggering 6 points above the legendary FC Barcelona.
Bayern Leverkusen, a side who were branded with the unwanted nickname ‘Neverkusen’ for their consistent runner-up status in major games, where they would find their way to high-ticket games but unfortunately always falter at the finish line experienced a dramatic change of fortune. 20 games into the season and Neverkusen have never lost. They can now boast of an undefeated status, and a first place position in the Bundesliga, 2 points ahead of the mercenaries Bayern Munich, a side who have won eleven back-to-back titles since 2013.
Brighton, under the management of Roberto De Zerbi are a side that once frequented the EFL Championship only to become a top-ten side in England’s most competitive league.
What happened?
A lot of things have changed to enable this sort of success from teams that were so often counted out. However, for the most part, it can be summed up in two words: “better performances.” I know right, what a surprise, playing better actually takes you further. Luckily that’s not where this article ends or else you’d probably be pretty upset right now. The next question is, how? How do you go from being looked down upon to being looked at as real competition? How do you go from playing against teams in a league with an average salary offering of £616,472, to the Premier League where the average salary offering jumps to more than 5 times that amount and still compete (Capology [4])?
At the end of the day goals win games right? So, you could increase your offensive output to score more goals, like was the case with a team like Girona, who 23 games into the 2023/24 season have scored more goals than the league-leaders, but have also conceded more also. Or, you could put an emphasis on defensive resilience like was the case with Leicester City in their 2015/16 campaign where they incurred only three losses in large part due to their great defensive efforts allowing them to clinch the Premier League cup for the first time.
There’s also of course the idea of Moneyball theory, popularised by Billy Beane of the Oklahama A’s, (if you haven’t watched the movie, I’d highly recommend it, you can find it on Netflix) which was a way in which lower-budget teams would approach recruiting players in an economically feasible manner which was still immensely impactful to their team’s performance, resulting in the league’s underdog, becoming league favourites.
What’s Next?
The next episode of this series will focus on attack, primarily the creation/finishing phase (the phase in the final third of the pitch where the attacking team tries to create a scoring opportunity). To do that we’ll be taking a deeper look at two teams: (1) Sheffield United and (2) Brighton & Hove Albion.
Sheffield United, seem to be part of the 43% of teams that struggle to book their place for the following season of Premier League football. They were promoted from the EFL Championship in 2019/20, however they immediately faced relegation in the following season. They were able to fight their way back to the PL, only to once again find themselves in a relegation battle 23 games into the season.
On the other hand Brighton is a team which too got promoted into the Premier league in the past decade, however have found themselves on the opposite trajectory to Sheffield United, steadily rising up the table as the seasons go by.
Bye for now 👋🏾
Thanks for taking the time to read this. Don’t forget to give this a like if you liked it, and share it with a friend. I’d love to hear from you, yes, specifically you reading this right now, so do leave your thoughts in the comment section below, and stay tuned for the next episode which is currently in the works.
Till next time.
References
- Revenue and wage costs of clubs in the Premier League from 2016/17 To 2021/22. Statista. Accessed Feb 3, 2024— https://www.statista.com/statistics/1022407/european-soccer-revenues-wage-costs-premier-league/#:~:text=In%20the%202021%2F22%20season,increased%20by%20over%2010%20percent.
- Bouncebackability…What are the chances? Skylab. Accessed Feb 3, 2024 .https://skylab.com/bouncebackability-what-are-the-chances/
- Whitmore, Johnny. What Are Expected Goals on Target (xGOT)? Opta. Accessed 3 Feb 2024. https://theanalyst.com/eu/2021/06/what-are-expected-goals-on-target-xgot/
- 2023–2024 Premier League Salaries and Contracts. Capology. Accessed Feb 6, 2024. https://www.capology.com/uk/premier-league/salaries/
